Member Profile

Dr Kishor Kumar Paul

PhD student


University of New South Wales

Kpaul@kirby.unsw.edu.au

Biography

Dr Kishor graduated from Dhaka Medical College affiliated with the University of Dhaka, the oldest and the best medical college and university in the country. He decided to pursue career in public health research due to high infectious disease burden, scarcity of diagnostic and treatment facilities, and low per capita expenditure for healthcare in his country. He started his career in research by joining the emerging infection program of icddr,b (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh), in 2011 as a research fellow. Since then he has developed extensive research skills in the surveillance, epidemiology, and biostatistics which are relevant to tropical diseases affected by climate change. Bangladesh is one of the countries most adversely affected from anthropogenic climate change in the Asia-Pacific region. Preparedness and adaptation efforts are limited by lack of substantial prediction of future climate change effects on infection transmission and outbreaks. During this research at UNSW, he aims to develop mathematical models to get key insights about climate change in the region and their effect on pathogens, host/vectors and environmental factors facilitating transmission to forecast the risk of future epidemics in Bangladesh.

THESIS: Climate change and tropical disease transmission in the Asia-Pacific region

Bangladesh is one of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region most adversely affected by climate change and a mean annual temperature increase of 0.9°C to 2.6°C is projected by the 2060s. While the impact of climate change on dengue transmission has been acknowledged no quantitative analyses have been conducted to assess the future risks and potential impact of adaptation strategies. My aim is to use mathematical models to analyze the impact of climate change on dengue virus, host/vectors and environmental factors facilitating transmission to forecast the risk of future epidemics of dengue in Bangladesh. In doing so, I\'ll estimate the impact of climate extremes, for example, the impact heatwaves had on dengue transmission in past. This will also inform future predicted impact of heatwaves on potential dengue transmission.