The Glasgow Climate Conference of Parties, COP26, is almost certain to fall short of its first goal to “keep 1.5°C within reach”. Moreover, even if it achieved its other aim to “secure global net-zero by mid-century” there is still a high probability that global temperatures will exceed 2°C if this isn’t matched by increased short-term action as well. That’s the message coming from climate scientists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX).
Tag Archive: emissions
In this paper, as part of the Future Seas project, the researchers built upon previous work by using a foresighting scenario analysis technique to envision two alternative possible futures for society by 2030, in the context of the challenge of climate change adaptation and mitigation.
The Paris Agreement requires countries to commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the global average temperature remains well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. But how likely are we to meet these targets?
Irrespective of tipping points, climate change adaptation efforts will be less costly and disruptive to society – and will stand a better chance of success – if warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C or higher. We therefore in no way advocate for policies that forgo pursuing the ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C, regardless of whether that target remains feasible or not.
CLEX researchers found the ocean around Antarctica will warm under future emission scenarios, with the level of warming under the high emission scenario almost double that under the medium-low emission scenario.
This study showed that phosphorus availability reduced the projected CO2-induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon-nitrogen models.
The study finds important regional consequences for precipitation and clouds formation if large changes in dimethyl-sulfide emissions were to occur. In a hypothetical case where all marine DMS emissions cease completely, we find the Earth would warm by approximately 0.5 degrees C over a ten-year period.