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Seminar: Using observations to improve ensemble-based climate projections and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation

Australian German Climate and Energy College Level 1, 187 Grattan St, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

Craig Bishop (University of Melbourne) This seminar introduces the “replicate Earth” ensemble interpretation framework, based on theoretically derived statistical relationships between ensembles of perfect models (replicate Earths) and observations. We transform an ensemble of (imperfect) climate projections into an ensemble whose mean and variance have the same statistical relationship to observations as an ensemble of... View Article

Seminar: Climate Engineering Under the Paris Agreement

Australian German Climate and Energy College Level 1, 187 Grattan St, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

Neil Craik (University of Waterloo) While the Paris Agreement does not address the issue of climate engineering (CE) expressly, the target of limiting global average temperature rise to “well below” 2°C and to “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increases to 1.5°C”, (a goal that appears unlikely to be achieved in the absence of significant amounts... View Article

Seminar: Larsen C Ice Shelf: Melt, ponding, ice-dynamics and the birth of a one trillion tonne iceberg

Flex Spaces, Salamanca 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Adrian Luckman (Swansea University). Larsen C Ice Shelf: Melt, ponding, ice-dynamics and the birth of a one trillion tonne iceberg In 2017, one of the largest icebergs ever recorded broke away from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica. This talk covers the work of a team who spent years studying the ice shelf and... View Article

Seminar: Urban life and climate change

Evan Williams Theatre Peter Hall Building G03, 813 Swanston Street, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

Somini Sengupta (New York Times) At a time when the majority of the world’s population is urban, climate change presents grave new risks for the world’s cities and forces city folks to figure out how to survive. Somini Sengupta, international climate reporter for The New York Times, considers the scale of the problem and the... View Article

Seminar: Using natural history collections to understand adaptive responses to environmental change

Tas-Auditorium CSIRO Marine Laboratories, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Jeff Good (University of Montana) Rapid environmental change threatens global biodiversity and has already led to the decline or extirpation of many taxa. Although phenotypic plasticity may enable populations to rapidly track changing climates, evolutionary adaptation will be essential for the long-term persistence of many species. Disentangling plasticity from evolutionary responses ultimately requires resolving the... View Article

Mapping land dryness at high resolution for fire prediction

Mapping land dryness at high resolution for fire prediction   Vinodkumar, Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes Bureau of Meteorology   Accurate soil moisture information is essential for the monitoring and prediction of fire danger, soil moisture being an important factor in determining the moisture content and flammability of fuels. The soil moisture status in operational... View Article

Fiona Johnson: Droughts and flooding rains – statistical methods for hydrological extremes

The Red Centre Rm 2060 Room 2060, Level 2, The Red Centre, Kensington, NSW, Australia

Hydrological extremes by their very nature are rare events and require careful use of statistical methods to ensure robust and reliable predictions. Talk summary Hydrological extremes by their very nature are rare events and require careful use of statistical methods to ensure robust and reliable predictions. This presentation focuses on two case studies of the... View Article

Seminar: The past predicts the future – or not? Lessons on climate sensitivity from paleoclimate

Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) 4th Floor, Matthews Building, UNSW, Kensington, NSW, Australia

Speaker: Anna von der Heydt (Utrecht University) Climate sensitivity is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models, observational, historical or palaeoclimate data. This 'uncertainty' has its origin in different aspects: i) There is a classical uncertainty related to measurements or proxy estimates of temperature and... View Article

Modelling seasonal rainfall forecasts forced with improved predictive ocean surface temperature

Bureau of Meteorology Level 9, Seminar Room, 700 Collins St., Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

 Zaved Khan (Bureau of Meteorology). Modelling seasonal rainfall forecasts forced with improved predictive ocean surface temperature Seasonal rainfall forecasts are in high demand for users such as irrigators and water managers in decision making and risk management. Both statistical and dynamical models are widely used to generate probabilistic rainfall forecasts in advance for a season.... View Article