Originally published at Scimex

The World Meteorological Organization is warning that there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, thanks to the combination of El Niño and climate change. The latest global Annual to Decadal Climate Update also warns there is a 66% chance that annual global surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years. While this doesn’t mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement, the WMO is still sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. 

Media release

From: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued by the World Meteorological Organization in collaboration with the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres. The Update provides a synthesis of temperature predictions for the period 2023-2027.

  • There is 66% chance that annual global surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years
  • There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of next five years will be warmest on record
  • El Niño and climate change will likely combine to fuel global temperature increase
  • Arctic heating is predicted to be more than three times higher than the global average

 Geneva, 17 May 2023 (WMO) – Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).


There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.  There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas.

There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.  For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceedance.

“Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson,  a Met Office expert scientist who led the report.
 
Key points

  • The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.
  • The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.
  • There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
  • The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.
  • Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
  • Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.

Paris Agreement
In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather.

The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C, to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C.

The new report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress (22 May to 2 June) which will discuss how to strengthen weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation. Priorities for discussion at Congress include the ongoing Early Warnings for All initiative to protect people from increasingly extreme weather and a new Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to inform climate mitigation.

Notes For Editors:

The Global Annual to Decadal Update is one of a suite of WMO climate products, including the flagship State of the Global Climate, which seek to inform policy-makers. WMO will release its provisional statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2023 at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP28, in December.

The UK’s Met Office acts as the  WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. This year there are 145 ensemble members contributed by 11 different institutes to the predictions, which start at the end of 2022. Retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, covering the period 1960-2018 are used to estimate forecast skill.

Confidence in forecasts of global mean temperature is high since hindcasts show very high skill in all measures.

The forecasts shown here are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). It does not constitute an official forecast for any region or nation, but RCCs, RCOFs and NMHSs are encouraged to appropriately interpret and develop value-added forecasts from this Climate Update.

Expert Reaction

These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.

Dr Andrew King is a Lecturer in Climate Science at the School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne.

“As we continue to emit greenhouse gases at near-record levels, the human fingerprint on the climate becomes stronger and clearer. The world is continuing to warm at a fast pace due to our continuing greenhouse gas emissions, so it’s no surprise that we are very likely to see record-breaking global temperatures in the next few years.

The increasing likelihood of a year reaching 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures is an indicator of how quickly we are damaging the planet. To meet the Paris Agreement and keep global warming well below 2C, humanity must rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We will only stop warming the planet when we reach global net-zero emissions, so we must work to cut our greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible.”

Last updated: 17 May 2023 11:44am

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.

Dr Hamish Clarke is a Research Fellow in Future Fire Risk at the University of Melbourne

“When it comes to bushfire risk, the news that there is a 98% chance of setting a new global temperature record in the next five years is extremely worrying. High temperatures are one of the key ingredients for dangerous fire weather, along with dry and windy conditions. As temperatures continue to rise, there is more chance of them coinciding with extended dry spells and droughts. If we continue on our current path there is a real possibility of a repeat – or worse – of the conditions that led to the devastating Black Summer fires of 2019-20. There is still time to avoid the worst climate change projections but it means taking much more action than we currently are.”

Last updated: 17 May 2023 11:44am

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.

Dr Chris Mays is a Lecturer in Palaetontology at University College Cork, Ireland

“Faster warming at the poles is precisely what we see in the rock and fossil records from Earth’s deep past. When the world warms, the extra heat is smeared across the globe, with the coldest parts becoming warmer quicker. 

For most of Earth’s history, the planet has been without polar ice caps. But the transitions from an icy world (like today) and an ice-free world is usually much slower. We’re heading towards an ice-free globe, but the rate at which things are changing is reminiscent of the most extreme and most devastating warming events in Earth’s past. 

A small glimmer of hope is that Antarctica is not warming as fast as the Arctic. If this was the case, we would see a dramatic and rapid rise in sea levels, as the land-locked Antarctic ice sheets melted. Instead, we still have (limited) time to avert the worst outcomes of climate change.

Our global Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C was admittedly ambitious, but very few of the relevant scientists think this is realistic anymore. A safer bet would be to prepare for a world that is at least 2°C warmer.”

Last updated: 17 May 2023 11:43am

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.

Dr Yawen Shao is a research associate affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

“According to the report, there is a high confidence that the world will experience its hottest year on record between 2023 and 2027. Additionally, there is an increasing probability that at least a year during this period will see the annual mean global temperature temporarily surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

A possible onset of El Niño is predicted for December 2023-February 2024, which may lead to decreased winter-spring rainfall in eastern and northern Australia, accompanied by warmer daytime temperatures. The combined factors could potentially trigger another drought in the country.

Over the next five years, on average, southern Australia can anticipate warmer temperatures during May to September, while southeast Australia can expect elevated temperatures from November to March, both with a high level of confidence.”

Last updated: 17 May 2023 11:43am

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.

Professor Janette Lindesay is from the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University

“The new WMO Report is the latest in a series of expert assessments based on the most comprehensive and rigorous observational data, analysis and modelling that has ever been available.

Key Points about the Science:

The data used cover the entire globe using a combination of surface and satellite-based measurements, and are thoroughly quality controlled by meteorological agencies and scientific researchers around the world.

Climate system modelling by 11 different institutions has been used to produce forecasts for the period 2023-2027, providing a high degree of confidence in the projections because they are replicated across different research groups.  Additionally, testing these models shows that they simulate the observed climate of the recent past to a high degree of accuracy – they work well.

Comments on Key Findings:

Global annual average temperatures are likely to rise to levels never experienced previously by humanity; we are moving further into uncharted territory, in which previous adaptation and coping strategies may not apply.

Global heating is accelerating. The chance of exceeding 1.5°C was nearly zero in 2015, and 10% up to 2021. It is now 66%.

Rapid Arctic warming is a destabilising influence on weather patterns, leading to increasing frequency of extremely hot and extremely cold weather events. It also has global consequences for future weather and climate disruption.

For Australia the projections for the period 2023-2027 show that above-average temperatures are highly likely and there is tendency towards below-average rainfall across the continent, although climate variability from year to year and the likelihood of extreme events (possible drought, severe storms, flooding) are continuing to increase.”

Last updated: 17 May 2023 11:42am

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.

Dr Belle Workman is a Research Fellow at Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne

“Projections for the warmest year on record in the next five years spells further trouble for the health of people around the world. We know that climate change negatively impacts health in a variety of ways, including through the direct physical effects of heatwaves, such as heat stroke, and indirect effects of rising temperatures, such as contributing to food and water insecurity. Exposure to heat also impacts on labour productivity, particularly for people working in agriculture and construction. High-risk populations, such as children, women, the elderly, and people with pre-existing health conditions, can be disproportionally affected by rising temperatures, and at 1.5C, people living in urban areas are more likely to be exposed to deadly heatwaves because of urban heat island effects. We must continue to pursue adaptation measures, such as heat early warning systems, which can help to protect people from heat-related illnesses.”

Last updated: 16 May 2023 4:36pm

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.

Dr Belle Workman is a Research Fellow at Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne

“Projections for the warmest year on record in the next five years spells further trouble for the health of people around the world. We know that climate change negatively impacts health in a variety of ways, including through the direct physical effects of heatwaves, such as heat stroke, and indirect effects of rising temperatures, such as contributing to food and water insecurity. Exposure to heat also impacts on labour productivity, particularly for people working in agriculture and construction. High-risk populations, such as children, women, the elderly, and people with pre-existing health conditions, can be disproportionally affected by rising temperatures, and at 1.5C, people living in urban areas are more likely to be exposed to deadly heatwaves because of urban heat island effects. We must continue to pursue adaptation measures, such as heat early warning systems, which can help to protect people from heat-related illnesses.”

Last updated: 16 May 2023 4:11pm

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.

Dr Kimberley Reid is an atmospheric scientist from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes at Monash University

“In order for one of the next 5-years to not be record-breaking, we would either need: no El Niño events in the next 5-years or a massive volcanic eruption in the tropics, à la Krakatoa in 1883, both of which are extremely unlikely scenarios.

My biggest fear is that we become desensitised to the ever-falling records and forget what these numbers actually mean. 1.5 degrees warming means the Great Barrier Reef probably won’t survive this century. That’s tragic.”

Last updated: 16 May 2023 1:22pm

Declared conflicts of interest:

None declared.