The most advanced and comprehensive analysis of climate sensitivity yet undertaken has revealed with more confidence than ever before how sensitive the Earth’s climate is to carbon dioxide. The range has been reduced from 1.5°C-4.5°C down to 2.3°C-4.5°C.
In this paper, CLEX researchers developed new metrics to assess whether forecaster edits targeting these processes were reducing error in the daily varying component of the wind forecasts, by comparing edited and unedited forecast data with weather station observations.
A new paper by Martin Jucker and colleagues reveals the choice of a particular convection-resolving model (CRM) has a much larger impact on the results than increasing resolution. It also suggests the behaviour of CRMs is tied to model internals instead of the phenomena they are trying to reproduce.
CLEX researchers found the influence of climate change and the depletion in stratospheric ozone are the major drivers over the Atlantic Oceans that shift westerly winds further south. However, over the Pacific and Indian oceans natural variations induced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific also play an important role.
This study investigates the influence of cold pools, which are evaporatively cooled regions of air near the surface, below thunderstorms, on the orientation of line‐organized thunderstorm clusters using computer model simulations.
New research suggests that increasing spatial resolution alone is not sufficient to obtain a systematic improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and other improvements (e.g. physics, tuning) may be required.
Researchers have developed a hybrid approach to estimate recent rainfall that combines satellite-based rainfall estimates with satellite-based soil moisture estimates. When this approach was tested against independent rain gauge measurements it showed notable improvements.
CLEX researchers and colleagues from the University of the Balearic Islands explored what was most responsible for the coastal damage caused by Storm Gloria in 2020. The storm killed 13 people and left a damage bill in excess of $200m.