The Glasgow Climate Conference of Parties, COP26, is almost certain to fall short of its first goal to “keep 1.5°C within reach”. Moreover, even if it achieved its other aim to “secure global net-zero by mid-century” there is still a high probability that global temperatures will exceed 2°C if this isn’t matched by increased short-term action as well. That’s the message coming from climate scientists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX).
Tag Archive: 2°C
The Paris Agreement requires countries to commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the global average temperature remains well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. But how likely are we to meet these targets?
Irrespective of tipping points, climate change adaptation efforts will be less costly and disruptive to society – and will stand a better chance of success – if warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C or higher. We therefore in no way advocate for policies that forgo pursuing the ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C, regardless of whether that target remains feasible or not.
Climate scientists testing a new mathematical and statistical method that converts projections of future climate outcomes in a warming world into reliable probabilities have found there is a significant chance the Arctic could be ice-free even if world leaders meet the Paris targets of 1.5°C and 2°C.
An international group of scientists has now forecast the likelihood global warming will exceed 1.5C over the next 5 years. This is one of the thresholds of the UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement, which aims “to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C”.
The Climate Variability and Teleconnections Research Program has formed into three separate clusters – SAM, Tropical Variability and Oceans.
The Heatwaves and Cold Outbreaks Research Program is in full swing, welcoming a new associate investigator in Debbie Hudson from the Bureau of Meteorology and pressing ahead with research across a range of areas.
Research brief: Paris target impacts compared using pattern scaling projections and climate model outputsJuly 13, 2018 6:48 am Comments Off on Research brief: Paris target impacts compared using pattern scaling projections and climate model outputs
In relation to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C and 2°C, new research shows the differences in results between pattern-scaling and climate model output were primarily due to forcings other than changes to greenhouse gas emissions.
Past observations suggest future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models under business-as-usual scenarios and sea levels may rise 6m at 2°C.