Seminar: The past predicts the future – or not? Lessons on climate sensitivity from paleoclimate

Speaker: Anna von der Heydt (Utrecht University) Climate sensitivity is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models, observational, historical or palaeoclimate data. This ‘uncertainty’ has its origin in different aspects: i) There is a classical uncertainty related to measurements or proxy estimates of temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations. From model estimates, there may be a model uncertainty, which is however difficult to quantify. Using a Bayesian approach for each line... View Article