Irrespective of tipping points, climate change adaptation efforts will be less costly and disruptive to society – and will stand a better chance of success – if warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C or higher. We therefore in no way advocate for policies that forgo pursuing the ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C, regardless of whether that target remains feasible or not.
Tag Archive: climate sensitivity
Briefing note 14: The latest global climate models present challenges for generating climate projectionsJune 23, 2021 10:41 am Comments Off on Briefing note 14: The latest global climate models present challenges for generating climate projections
Climate sensitivity describes how sensitive the Earth’s temperature is to a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. One measure of climate sensitivity for projections of future climate is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). ECS is the increase in the global average temperature between the pre-industrial era and a future doubled carbon dioxide climate once equilibrium of the climate has been reached.
A constant stream of research has seen some major papers receive international coverage, Kim Reid has shown how to attract opportunistic media, and an online media workshop may be on the cards.
While the Extremes Rainfall RP has found itself in challenging times as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, they have still found moments to celebrate and have been delighted by the enormous range of extraordinary research.
The most advanced and comprehensive analysis of climate sensitivity yet undertaken has revealed with more confidence than ever before how sensitive the Earth’s climate is to carbon dioxide. The range has been reduced from 1.5°C-4.5°C down to 2.3°C-4.5°C.
Speaker: Anna von der Heydt (Utrecht University) Climate sensitivity is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models, observational, historical or palaeoclimate data. This ‘uncertainty’ has its origin in different aspects: i) There is a classical uncertainty related to measurements or proxy estimates of temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations. From model estimates, there may be a model uncertainty, which is however difficult to quantify. Using a Bayesian approach for each line... View Article
This interdisciplinary project will apply methods from statistical physics, which are only beginning to be used in the environmental sciences, to better exploit such data, advance our basic understanding, and produce more useful models for weather and climate changes.