CLEX researchers addressed the error compensation issue for temperature extremes by defining a novel performance metric that identifies those models that can simulate temperature extremes well and simulate them well for the right reasons.
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A group of international researchers using CMIP6 models to determine how heavy precipitation events will alter with climate change. The northern hemisphere in particular showed a strong warming signal for increased precipitation.
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Australian researchers assess the ability of recently released climate models to simulate the climate of Australia and the new scenarios for 21st Century climate change.
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CLEX authors and colleagues from major Australian science organisations investigating climate examined the simulation of Australian climate in the new, state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
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A new study by CLEX researchers and colleagues shows that CMIP5 models as a group, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures underestimate, these atmospheric feedbacks on average by 23%. This underestimate can be linked to the wrong location at which climate models simulate the most important tropical circulation, called the Walker circulation.
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Using a novel methodology applied to CMIP5 projections CLEX researchers found that the local temperatures experienced by 90% of people would be substantially higher in a transient (still warming) climate than an equilibrium climate where the temperatures have plateaued, for the same global temperature.
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This study found in CMIP5 models that are able to simulate both types of events, that convective extremes do not always coincide with warm extremes. The disassociation becomes more distinct under greenhouse warming with higher occurrences of convective extremes than warm extremes.
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The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Model Analysis Workshop was held in Barcelona from March 25-28, 2019, and provided the first opportunity for results from CMIP6 models to be discussed and presented by the modelling community.
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The primary goal of this project is to conduct an evaluation of the CMIP5 models for precipitation extremes over Australia. To that end, the student will assess how models simulate key precipitation metrics in comparison to observations.
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The CMS team reports on a range of updates to ACCESS, NU-WRF (CABLE coupled to WRF), CMIP6 data, ERA5 datasets and more.
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The past four months have seen Extreme Rainfall researchers win a slew of awards and produce some important foundational research on storms, hybrid cyclones, and some unexpected influences on extreme rainfall events.
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Computer models used to simulate global climate agree the climate will warm in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, a recent paper by Bador et al. (2018)1 includes results that highlight our uncertainty about exactly how extremely wet conditions will change in Australia. Further development of Australia’s national climate model, ACCESS, may help reduce this uncertainty.
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Research brief: Natural variability and warming pattern may decide how El Niños will change
Research brief: Climate change will strengthen Southern Hemisphere monsoons
Research brief: How nighttime storms form without cold pools
Research brief: Decade of observations needed to flatten Soil moisture variations
