The aim of this project is to investigate the effect of compound hot and dry events on agricultural production in Australia, and to assess the predictability of yield losses due to compound events using seasonal climate and hydrological forecasts. The outcome of the project may inform the development of seasonal forecasts of hydro-climatic risk indicators for agricultural production in Australia.
Tag Archive: compound events
Compound events (CEs) caused by a combination of multiple drivers often result in more severe socio-economic and ecological impacts than conventional events. One example for CEs with the potential to cause considerable negative impacts on crop yields and human health is the cooccurrence of hot and dry conditions. The student will work with climate model output from Earth System Models participating in the sixth round of the CMIP6 and assess what impact a gradual increase followed by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide has on the occurrence frequency of hot and dry CEs.
Understanding what causes droughts and what brings about their conclusion is key work in a dry continent like Australia. Often, we use computer models and modern observations to reach our conclusions but sometimes the clues to these questions can be uncovered in the past.
In May, Columbia University hosted the Workshop on Correlated Extreme Events. A total of 175 participants attended the mix of presentations, posters and discussions evolving around the topic of correlated extremes.
This student project will focus on spatially correlated events in Australia that occurred in the past 30 to 40 years. Using observations over this time period the student will catalogue past compound events; assess possible trends in their occurrence; check for preferred spatial correlation patterns; and assess if these were accurately reproduced in reanalysis products (e.g. BARRA, ERA-5 and/or ERA-Interim).