El Niño effects are communicated to the Indian Ocean via both large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes over the southern tropical ocean basin and via disturbances to sea‐levels along the coast of Western Australia. CLEX researchers investigated these remote ENSO influences in a state‐of‐the‐art climate model.
Tag Archive: forecasting
An international group of researchers performed a critical review of the information infrastructure that connects ecosystem modelling and measurement efforts. This group has now proposed a roadmap to community cyber-infrastructure development that can reduce the divisions between empirical research and modelling, accelerating the pace of discovery.
While the Extremes Rainfall RP has found itself in challenging times as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, they have still found moments to celebrate and have been delighted by the enormous range of extraordinary research.
Errors in identifying the fire scar - the portion of a long-lasting bushfire that is actively burning or smouldering, are the largest errors in forecasting emissions from these events. This project will develop and analyse fire progression tracking using data from the 2019 - 2020 bushfire season.
CLEX researchers and colleagues have highlighted the need for the development of systems to predict marine heatwaves, which are a growing threat to marine ecosystems and industries as the climate changes.
Ocean salinity could be an indicator of major rain events before IOD or ENSO events have peaked. This raises the prospect that long term forecasts for Australia could be improved by analysing sea surface salinity in the Indian and Pacific oceans.
The proposed project aims to implement this new turbulence diagnostic scheme and evaluate its performance using high-resolution Himawari-8 imagery. Using data from the aviation industry, some preliminary verification of the diagnostic will be undertaken. Additional observational and model data will be used to investigate turbulence-prone atmospheric conditions and processes (e.g. wind shear, mountain waves, etc).
CLEX researchers find strong correlation between ozone hole size and Australian summer temperatures. While there is no causal link between the two, the changes are driven by the same source - ocean temperatures.
A new study explores a new, probabilistic way of prediction of stratospheric warming events in the Northern Hemisphere based on dynamical arguments produces meaningful forecasting information around ten times longer than traditional model forecasting.
Forecasting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and anticipating how they may change with global warming remains a significant challenge for climate researchers. An ENSO complexity workshop held in November 2017 produced a follow-up paper summarising what we know about ENSO and its predictability.