Tag Archive: model dependence

Research brief: New calculations reveal Arctic could be ice-free at 1.5°C

July 9, 2019 9:00 am Published by Comments Off on Research brief: New calculations reveal Arctic could be ice-free at 1.5°C

Climate scientists testing a new mathematical and statistical method that converts projections of future climate outcomes in a warming world into reliable probabilities have found there is a significant chance the Arctic could be ice-free even if world leaders meet the Paris targets of 1.5°C and 2°C.

Research brief: How to avoid overconfidence in climate model ensembles

January 30, 2019 3:06 pm Published by Comments Off on Research brief: How to avoid overconfidence in climate model ensembles

In this review paper, researchers contextualise the broad and seemingly disparate range of attempts to define and address model dependence within climate model ensembles, and offer concrete advice on how best to avoid overconfidence.