Most climate models correct for current SSTs but don't correct for the reliability of future SSTs. This study shows that making that additional correction has a profound impact on how tropical cyclones will develop in a warmer world.
CLEX researchers found that applying a statistical correction to projected sea surface temperatures has a major impact on changes to rainfall with global warming, leading to a 25% reduction in future precipitation projected for the south-western Pacific.
Zaved Khan (Bureau of Meteorology). Modelling seasonal rainfall forecasts forced with improved predictive ocean surface temperature Seasonal rainfall forecasts are in high demand for users such as irrigators and water managers in decision making and risk management. Both statistical and dynamical models are widely used to generate probabilistic rainfall forecasts in advance for a season. Statistical prediction systems establish a stationary relationship between the predictor and the predictand variables. On the other hand, dynamical models are based on the laws... View Article