The Central American mid‐summer drought (MSD) is the decline in rainfall during the middle of the wet season over Central America, which has been shown to have strong effects on agriculture and bushfires in Costa Rica. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been shown to influence Costa Rican rainfall on intra‐seasonal time scales, and therefore may be important to the MSD. This research aims to find the connection between the MJO and MSD.
Heat waves are the deadliest natural hazard in Australia. Motivated by the prediction that the number of extremely hot days in subtropical Australia will increase in a warmer climate, this study aims to develop a comprehensive picture of the processes leading to extreme temperatures.
Research brief: How well can climate models simulate interactions between cool and dry conditions under the current climate?September 11, 2018 1:07 pm Comments Off on Research brief: How well can climate models simulate interactions between cool and dry conditions under the current climate?
This paper shows that many models overestimate the interaction between hot and dry conditions in wet regions and therefore overamplify heat extremes. The study points to necessary model improvement to increase confidence in future projections of heat extremes.
This paper examined the likelihood of extreme marine heatwaves global using climate models simulations, with and without anthropogenic influences, concluding that these events were up to fifty times more likely due to anthropogenic climate change.
The study finds important regional consequences for precipitation and clouds formation if large changes in dimethyl-sulfide emissions were to occur. In a hypothetical case where all marine DMS emissions cease completely, we find the Earth would warm by approximately 0.5 degrees C over a ten-year period.
CLEX researchers found that counter-clockwise rotating eddies in the Southern Ocean mix the ocean deeper in winter, allowing more nutrients to enter their interiors, leading to higher productivity. This work is important because eddy productivity plays a significant role in the exchange of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere.
This research demonstrates how cloud processes, steep mountains, tropical coastlines, the daily changes in solar insolation and planetary-scale waves work together to cause large variations in the tropical heating that drives global circulation patterns. Many of these effects are under-represented in global climate models.
The MAAT framework can be used to systematically run multiple model simulations to explore how different underlying model assumptions, hypotheses and parameters lead to predicted model behaviour and isolate the causes of model divergence.
A new study by CLEX researchers using observations from FLUXNET sites identifies regions of high and low predictability and will likely help improve land surface model evaluation.
It is hoped this proposed synthesis of two ENSO structures, their interaction with each other and how they respond to external forcing, will be the catalyst for future research and practical applications for forecasting and determining the impacts of present and future ENSO events.