Drought is a major risk to Australia with extended periods of drought affecting our social, economic and environmental systems. The newly released report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contains significant new assessments of the science and future projections of drought.
To better understand the implications of the latest climate science for Tasmania, this brief combines information from the IPCC AR6 WG1 report, with regional assessments that contributed to the UTAS Blueprint for a climate-positive Tasmania, and expertise from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX). The regional information is based on Tasmania-specific downscaled modelling undertaken by Climate Futures for Tasmania.
The Paris Agreement requires countries to commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the global average temperature remains well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. But how likely are we to meet these targets?
Australian researchers in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes have made major contributions to the 2021 IPCC Working Group 1 report, through the authorship of the report, review and the many scientific papers cited in the report.
Irrespective of tipping points, climate change adaptation efforts will be less costly and disruptive to society – and will stand a better chance of success – if warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C or higher. We therefore in no way advocate for policies that forgo pursuing the ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C, regardless of whether that target remains feasible or not.
Briefing note 14: The latest global climate models present challenges for generating climate projectionsJune 23, 2021 10:41 am Comments Off on Briefing note 14: The latest global climate models present challenges for generating climate projections
Climate sensitivity describes how sensitive the Earth’s temperature is to a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. One measure of climate sensitivity for projections of future climate is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). ECS is the increase in the global average temperature between the pre-industrial era and a future doubled carbon dioxide climate once equilibrium of the climate has been reached.
Briefing note 13: How might Australia contribute to a next-generation global climate modelling facility?May 19, 2021 11:57 am Comments Off on Briefing note 13: How might Australia contribute to a next-generation global climate modelling facility?
The Royal Society has called for an international next-generation climate modelling centre (pdf), based on new cutting-edge high-performance computing and data services to support efforts toward net-zero emissions and to enable effective climate adaptation.
Research on the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex is important for Australia’s seasonal forecastsApril 7, 2020 2:51 pm Comments Off on Research on the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex is important for Australia’s seasonal forecasts
Research has established a link between Antarctic stratospheric winds and an increased risk of weather conducive to bushfires from late spring to early summer. Further research on the relationship between winds and ozone in the Antarctic stratosphere could improve seasonal forecasts for Australia.
Research on heatwaves and droughts by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes supports a major international report on Climate Change and LandDecember 11, 2019 11:11 am Comments Off on Research on heatwaves and droughts by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes supports a major international report on Climate Change and Land
This research brief examines how research from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes informed the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land.
In an hour-long talk to a business forum, Andy Pitman said: “there is no link between climate change and drought”. Given the audience were not climate scientists, or interested in the physics of the climate, this statement was one word too brief. Andy fully admits he should have said: “there is no direct link between climate change and drought”.