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Multi-year La Niña events

June 28, 2022 9:07 am Published by Leave your thoughts

La Niña is an important cause of rainfall variability of Australia. A multi-year La Niña event can be particularly important for some climate risks. Some climate models are indicating that La Niña may continue for a third year through spring and summer 2022-23, increasing the chances of more rain and flooding.

Understanding Australia’s rainfall

June 8, 2022 3:41 pm Published by Comments Off on Understanding Australia’s rainfall

By bringing together researchers focussed on the large-scale modes of climate variability with researchers investigating weather and land surface processes, our goal is to improve the regional predictions of how rainfall extremes will change in the future.

A new global picture of compounding weather and climate hazards

May 2, 2022 1:59 pm Published by Comments Off on A new global picture of compounding weather and climate hazards

The difference in results between the high-skill and low-skill CMIP6 models highlights an urgent need to examine why some models work well and some don’t, and, ultimately, improve those with weaknesses.

Climate change and tipping points

March 7, 2022 4:20 pm Published by Comments Off on Climate change and tipping points

Tipping points exist in the climate system, and it is very unlikely that all tipping points are known. Different tipping points are understood with different levels of confidence, they operate on different timescales, can interact to trigger cascades of abrupt changes, and some tipping point changes are irreversible on timescales of centuries to millennia.

Could understanding the Indian Ocean improve climate predictions for Australia?

March 3, 2022 11:33 am Published by Comments Off on Could understanding the Indian Ocean improve climate predictions for Australia?

Conditions in the Indian Ocean can affect the risk of Australia experiencing droughts, floods, marine heatwaves and bushfires and alter the prospects for rainfed agriculture in some parts of the country. Reliable forecasts of conditions in the Indian Ocean a season in advance would help us predict upcoming changes in the risk of climate extremes in some parts of Australia. However, producing such forecasts requires us to better understand, and more accurately model, relevant Indian Ocean climate processes. There is... View Article

Briefing note 17: Could understanding the Indian Ocean improve climate predictions for Australia?

October 25, 2021 7:32 am Published by Comments Off on Briefing note 17: Could understanding the Indian Ocean improve climate predictions for Australia?

You may have heard about the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean on Australia’s climate and how forecasts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) help to give warnings of flood, drought and bushfire risk in Australia months in advance… but what about the tropical Indian Ocean?

IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 report: conclusions on the evolving risk of drought

September 7, 2021 3:58 pm Published by Comments Off on IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 report: conclusions on the evolving risk of drought

Drought is a major risk to Australia with extended periods of drought affecting our social, economic and environmental systems. The newly released report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contains significant new assessments of the science and future projections of drought.

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: What does it mean for Tasmania?

September 7, 2021 12:17 pm Published by Comments Off on The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: What does it mean for Tasmania?

To better understand the implications of the latest climate science for Tasmania, this brief combines information from the IPCC AR6 WG1 report, with regional assessments that contributed to the UTAS Blueprint for a climate-positive Tasmania, and expertise from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX). The regional information is based on Tasmania-specific downscaled modelling undertaken by Climate Futures for Tasmania.