Picture: Stratosphere by Willpower Photos. (Flickr CC by 2.0)
- Fraser Dennison (CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, Victoria – Fraser.Dennison@csiro.au)
- Andrew Klekociuk (Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, Tasmania – Andrew.Klekociuk@aad.gov.au)
- Matt Woodhouse (CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, Victoria)
The stratospheric ozone layer is recovering thanks to reductions in emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) agreed to under the Montreal Protocol. The answer to the question ‘when will the ozone layer recover?’ is of great interest to scientists and society.
Complex chemistry-climate models that simulate ozone loss processes in detail can determine when the ozone layer will recover, but due to their computational expense those models can only simulate a limited range of future scenarios.
Recently, it has been shown that stratospheric ozone loss can be well approximated by combining temperatures at 100 hPa with a measure of the total amount of ODSs. By applying this relationship to a range of future climate projections (containing information about stratospheric temperatures) and estimates of the future evolution of ODS concentrations, the recovery date of the ozone hole can be estimated. Importantly, it will also be possible to estimate the uncertainty around that recovery date.
The student will conduct the analysis in a Unix supercomputing environment using python / Jupyter, Matlab, IDL, or a similar language. Demonstrated programming and data analysis skills are highly desirable, though the student can expect to acquire new skills and knowledge during the project. The student will be based at CSIRO Aspendale, in Melbourne.