Written by Professor Andy Pitman, Professor Nerilie Abram, Professor Julie Arblaster, Professor Jason Evans, Professor Neil Holbrook, Dr Martin Jucker, Dr Andrew King, Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Professor Steve Sherwood, and Dr Anna Ukkola
Summary
The media coverage of weather-related disasters around the world over the last few years has been confronting, leading to commentary suggesting that our climate is either changing more than expected or changing faster than expected.
In particular, a remarkable spike in global surface temperature and a prevalence of concerning heat events are leading to a suite of questions such as “Is this a tipping point?” or “Is climate change much worse than the scientists predicted?”.
We explore these questions in our latest briefing note.
Are global temperatures increasing beyond what is expected?
June 2023 – May 2024 saw a full 12 months with temperatures in excess of 1.5°C above pre-industrial averages. This was not expected and has shocked many in the science and broader community.
While it is clear that the increasingly high temperatures and ongoing warming are caused primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, there are no agreed explanations for the extremely large magnitude of increased surface temperatures of 2023/2024.
The figure below shows a reanalysis based on monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from January 1940 to May 2024, plotted for all 12-month periods spanning June to May of the following year. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The possible combination of factors responsible for the extraordinarily high temperatures is discussed in our briefing.