Picture (above): Super typhoon Maysak seen from space taken by European Space Agency astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti as the International Space Station passed near the storm on March 31, 2015. Credit: NASA

The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in the world to tropical cyclones. In order to provide information to help the country build resilience and plan for a future under a warmer climate, we build on previous research to investigate implications of future climate change on tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines.

Experiments were conducted using three regional climate models. Here we present the experimental design, the results of the model validation, and future projections of changes to tropical cyclone frequency and intensity by the mid‐21st century. The models used are shown to represent the key climatological features of tropical cyclones in the region, but issues remain in resolving very intense tropical cyclones and simulating realistic trajectories across their life‐cycles.

Acknowledging model inadequacies and uncertainties associated with future climate model projections, the results show a range of plausible changes with a tendency for fewer but slightly more intense tropical cyclones.

These results are consistent with results reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and provide clear evidence that the findings from these previous studies are applicable in the Philippines region.

  • Paper: Gallo, F, Daron, J, Macadam, I, et al. High‐resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Int J Climatol. 2019; 39: 1181– 1194. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5870