Observations and proxy data indicate that the Antarctic continent as a whole is not yet undergoing significant warming, yet climate model ensembles simulate that a significant warming trend should already be evident.
The paper explores this data-model mismatch using palaeoclimate data assimilation techniques in a model framework.
The findings confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium and the delayed onset of anthropogenic warming in simulations that assimilate palaeoclimate data. This is not evident in simulations without data assimilation.
Data assimilation may provide a framework for improving model representation of past Antarctic climate variability, in order to more accurately forecast Southern Hemisphere climate change in the future.
- Paper: Klein, F., Abram, N. J., Curran, M. A. J., Goosse, H., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Moy, A., Neukom, R., Orsi, A., Sjolte, J., Steiger, N., Stenni, B., and Werner, M.: Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments, Clim. Past, 15, 661-684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019.
- Picture (above): Iceberg in Antarctica Derek Oyen Unsplash