This PhD project will apply a state of the art, hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework to determine how past climatic conditions influence current responses to high CO2concentrations.
Weather time scales will be needed for models to accurately simulate the dynamic contribution to future precipitation changes with global warming. This will better reproduce spatial patterns and reduce regional uncertainties, especially in the tropics.
This research shows how to optimise the observational uncertainty description for data assimilation schemes in the special case of state dependent observational uncertainty.
New data assimilation method leads to large improvements in forecast accuracy when satellite observations of electromagnetic radiation emanating from the Earth were used to inform the data assimilation scheme.
Two papers by Centre of Excellence researchers are the first to systematically investigate and document hybrid cyclones in the Australian region.
The scientific community is moving away from “beauty contest” thinking where models are accepted or rejected on the basis of how well they simulate particular aspects of the present or past, toward a smarter approach that seeks to understand and exploit how present and future predictions are related as well as how different models are related.
The Australian FLUXNET data provide perhaps the world’s most valuable observations for building and evaluating the land models needed for projecting future droughts and heatwaves.
A focus on building resilience in health and health infrastructure is needed to deal with the future effects of extreme events – both due to climate change and climate variability.
New research in Nature Climate Change suggests droughts may not increase as a result of climate change. This finding resulted from researchers investigating an apparent climate model contradiction that saw climate change projections of the 21st Century produce increased droughts along with more run-off and a greening of the landscape
PhD student Jess Hargreaves along with chief investigator Nerilie Abram travelled to Christmas Island to retrieve coral cores that contained more than 200-years worth of detail on sea-levels and rainfall.