This study illustrates how future uncertainty of climate models in predicting hot extremes is controlled by two factors, both related to amplification of hot extremes through land-atmosphere interactions
The scientific community is moving away from “beauty contest” thinking where models are accepted or rejected on the basis of how well they simulate particular aspects of the present or past, toward a smarter approach that seeks to understand and exploit how present and future predictions are related as well as how different models are related.
In this review paper, researchers contextualise the broad and seemingly disparate range of attempts to define and address model dependence within climate model ensembles, and offer concrete advice on how best to avoid overconfidence.
The ocean plays a critical role in the climate system by transferring heat from the tropics toward the poles, helping to regulate regional climates. How this heat transport may change in the future remains a first order question in climate science.
The Australian FLUXNET data provide perhaps the world’s most valuable observations for building and evaluating the land models needed for projecting future droughts and heatwaves.
Antarctic sea ice extent underwent a rapid decline in the spring of 2016 and is still well below average now. CLEX researchers have tied the decline to natural variability of both the atmosphere and ocean in two articles published in Nature Communications this month.
Researchers develop a novel algorithm that should enable improved prediction of the function of global ecosystems in a warming climate.
New research in Nature Climate Change suggests droughts may not increase as a result of climate change. This finding resulted from researchers investigating an apparent climate model contradiction that saw climate change projections of the 21st Century produce increased droughts along with more run-off and a greening of the landscape
A range of international workshops, a new citizen science app and some significant research has made the past four months a busy time for the Extreme Rainfall research program.
Under future global warming, models shows increases in the wettest day of the season or year exceeds the range of changes explained by natural variability in most land areas.