New research shows regional climate models consistently provide added value across Australia compared to global climate models. As a result, researchers and policymakers can obtain plausible improvements in future climate projections from the current generation of available RCMs.
CLEX authors and colleagues from major Australian science organisations investigating climate examined the simulation of Australian climate in the new, state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
Using a novel methodology applied to CMIP5 projections CLEX researchers found that the local temperatures experienced by 90% of people would be substantially higher in a transient (still warming) climate than an equilibrium climate where the temperatures have plateaued, for the same global temperature.
Climate scientists testing a new mathematical and statistical method that converts projections of future climate outcomes in a warming world into reliable probabilities have found there is a significant chance the Arctic could be ice-free even if world leaders meet the Paris targets of 1.5°C and 2°C.
New study highlights local warming is expected to accelerate beyond the global average in mid latitude regions, especially in summer. Over oceans the rise will be below global average warming.
Speaker: Anna von der Heydt (Utrecht University) Climate sensitivity is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models, observational, historical or palaeoclimate data. This ‘uncertainty’ has its origin in different aspects: i) There is a classical uncertainty related to measurements or proxy estimates of temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations. From model estimates, there may be a model uncertainty, which is however difficult to quantify. Using a Bayesian approach for each line... View Article
This work examines how climate projections are affected by using different subsets of available climate models. The researchers find several variables need to be optimised independently to get the best results.
The scientific community is moving away from “beauty contest” thinking where models are accepted or rejected on the basis of how well they simulate particular aspects of the present or past, toward a smarter approach that seeks to understand and exploit how present and future predictions are related as well as how different models are related.
In this review paper, researchers contextualise the broad and seemingly disparate range of attempts to define and address model dependence within climate model ensembles, and offer concrete advice on how best to avoid overconfidence.