Tag Archive: climate projections

Research brief: Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change

May 21, 2020 4:16 pm Published by Comments Off on Research brief: Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change

New research shows regional climate models consistently provide added value across Australia compared to global climate models. As a result, researchers and policymakers can obtain plausible improvements in future climate projections from the current generation of available RCMs.

Research brief: More hot days at the same global temperature in a warming world than a world where warming has plateaued.

February 13, 2020 12:09 pm Published by Comments Off on Research brief: More hot days at the same global temperature in a warming world than a world where warming has plateaued.

Using a novel methodology applied to CMIP5 projections CLEX researchers found that the local temperatures experienced by 90% of people would be substantially higher in a transient (still warming) climate than an equilibrium climate where the temperatures have plateaued, for the same global temperature.

Research brief: New calculations reveal Arctic could be ice-free at 1.5°C

July 9, 2019 9:00 am Published by Comments Off on Research brief: New calculations reveal Arctic could be ice-free at 1.5°C

Climate scientists testing a new mathematical and statistical method that converts projections of future climate outcomes in a warming world into reliable probabilities have found there is a significant chance the Arctic could be ice-free even if world leaders meet the Paris targets of 1.5°C and 2°C.

Research brief: Selecting the correct model is more than a “beauty contest”

February 7, 2019 4:06 pm Published by Comments Off on Research brief: Selecting the correct model is more than a “beauty contest”

The scientific community is moving away from “beauty contest” thinking where models are accepted or rejected on the basis of how well they simulate particular aspects of the present or past, toward a smarter approach that seeks to understand and exploit how present and future predictions are related as well as how different models are related.

Research brief: How to avoid overconfidence in climate model ensembles

January 30, 2019 3:06 pm Published by Comments Off on Research brief: How to avoid overconfidence in climate model ensembles

In this review paper, researchers contextualise the broad and seemingly disparate range of attempts to define and address model dependence within climate model ensembles, and offer concrete advice on how best to avoid overconfidence.