You may have heard about the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean on Australia’s climate and how forecasts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) help to give warnings of flood, drought and bushfire risk in Australia months in advance… but what about the tropical Indian Ocean?
Tag Archive: Dietmar Dommenget
Research brief: Tropical rainfall modelling errors decrease slowly, but storm resolving models may be the futureOctober 23, 2020 10:24 am Comments Off on Research brief: Tropical rainfall modelling errors decrease slowly, but storm resolving models may be the future
An international team including CLEX researchers examined models used by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) over three model phases linked to IPCC reports – CMIP3, CMIP5, and the most recent, CMIP6, to see if they improved representation of tropical rainfall.
A lot has happened over the past few months with the publication of high-profile and challenging research and the continuing growth, development and recognition for the RP4 team.
A new study by CLEX researchers and colleagues shows that CMIP5 models as a group, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures underestimate, these atmospheric feedbacks on average by 23%. This underestimate can be linked to the wrong location at which climate models simulate the most important tropical circulation, called the Walker circulation.
This study introduces the Monash Simple Climate Model (MSCM) experiment database. The MSCM is based on a simple climate model and provides a wide range of model simulations to illustrate how the climate system works.
Dr Mandy Freund and CLEX colleagues have produced a world first 400-year long record of El Niño activity. It's a record that was previously considered impossible to extract from coral cores.
Forecasting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and anticipating how they may change with global warming remains a significant challenge for climate researchers. An ENSO complexity workshop held in November 2017 produced a follow-up paper summarising what we know about ENSO and its predictability.
It is hoped this proposed synthesis of two ENSO structures, their interaction with each other and how they respond to external forcing, will be the catalyst for future research and practical applications for forecasting and determining the impacts of present and future ENSO events.