Tag Archive: projections

IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 report: conclusions on the evolving risk of drought

September 7, 2021 3:58 pm Published by Comments Off on IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 report: conclusions on the evolving risk of drought

Drought is a major risk to Australia with extended periods of drought affecting our social, economic and environmental systems. The newly released report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change contains significant new assessments of the science and future projections of drought.

RP2 Attribution and Risk report – August 21

August 17, 2021 11:30 am Published by Comments Off on RP2 Attribution and Risk report – August 21

The Attribution and Risk program is taking shape with regular meetings on the fourth Wednesday of every month and has established focused questions and research around the processes that shape Australian extremes and the advanced machine learning/statistical approaches that will help produce the answers.

Research brief: The rare event that amplified the dry Australian spring of 2019 is unlikely to happen again

May 27, 2021 12:11 pm Published by Comments Off on Research brief: The rare event that amplified the dry Australian spring of 2019 is unlikely to happen again

An unusual southern stratospheric warming event amplified the conditions that led to the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/20. CLEX researchers explored how frequently these rare warming events may occur with climate change.

Research brief: How climate change impacts Marine heatwaves around Australia and New Zealand

March 15, 2021 10:10 am Published by Comments Off on Research brief: How climate change impacts Marine heatwaves around Australia and New Zealand

This study uses a high‐resolution climate model to investigate how and why marine heatwaves would change for the Australian region. The relative impacts of increases on background ocean temperature and changes to intrinsic temperature variations are compared.

Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics

February 15, 2021 1:22 pm Published by Comments Off on Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics

There is a great deal of misuse of climate model projections emerging in business. Climate models are being used for some purposes that are simply inappropriate leading to assessments of the physical risks to business that are of no value. However, there are ways to use climate model data that has value and can help business robustly assess some specific climate related risks.

Research Brief: SST adjustments radically alter projections of tropical cyclones in a warming world

April 15, 2020 3:18 pm Published by Comments Off on Research Brief: SST adjustments radically alter projections of tropical cyclones in a warming world

Most climate models correct for current SSTs but don't correct for the reliability of future SSTs. This study shows that making that additional correction has a profound impact on how tropical cyclones will develop in a warmer world.

BoM01: Changes in hydrological extremes across Australia under future climate change

July 16, 2019 1:00 am Published by Comments Off on BoM01: Changes in hydrological extremes across Australia under future climate change

The aim of this student project is to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes, such as high runoff events, hydrological or agricultural drought. It uses outputs of the AWRA-L hydrological model, which underpins the BoM's Australian Landscape Water Balance website.