Tag Archive: uncertainty

Research brief: How uncertainties in data and drought indices affect drought identification

September 24, 2020 10:22 am Published by Comments Off on Research brief: How uncertainties in data and drought indices affect drought identification

CLEX researchers examined the uncertainties of the input data of three commonly used drought indices, with the data coming from different sources, including observations and reanalysis. The ability of these indices to detect drought was assessed against soil moisture from multiple global land surface models.

Research brief: Changes to weather features of atmospheric conversion lines drive future changes to rainfall

February 18, 2019 2:51 pm Published by Comments Off on Research brief: Changes to weather features of atmospheric conversion lines drive future changes to rainfall

Weather time scales will be needed for models to accurately simulate the dynamic contribution to future precipitation changes with global warming. This will better reproduce spatial patterns and reduce regional uncertainties, especially in the tropics.

Briefing note 003: Why are we uncertain about how extremely wet conditions will change in Australia in the future?

February 11, 2019 4:08 pm Published by Comments Off on Briefing note 003: Why are we uncertain about how extremely wet conditions will change in Australia in the future?

Computer models used to simulate global climate agree the climate will warm in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, a recent paper by Bador et al. (2018)1 includes results that highlight our uncertainty about exactly how extremely wet conditions will change in Australia. Further development of Australia’s national climate model, ACCESS, may help reduce this uncertainty.