CLEX researchers addressed the error compensation issue for temperature extremes by defining a novel performance metric that identifies those models that can simulate temperature extremes well and simulate them well for the right reasons.
Tiny microbes at the base of the ocean food chain will be increasingly affected by marine heatwaves as the climate changes.
The most advanced and comprehensive analysis of climate sensitivity yet undertaken has revealed with more confidence than ever before how sensitive the Earth’s climate is to carbon dioxide. The range has been reduced from 1.5°C-4.5°C down to 2.3°C-4.5°C.
Picture (above): Beach. Credit: Frank McKenna (Unsplash).
Ocean salinity could be an indicator of major rain events before IOD or ENSO events have peaked. This raises the prospect that long term forecasts for Australia could be improved by analysing sea surface salinity in the Indian and Pacific oceans.
In this paper, CLEX researchers developed new metrics to assess whether forecaster edits targeting these processes were reducing error in the daily varying component of the wind forecasts, by comparing edited and unedited forecast data with weather station observations.
A new paper by Martin Jucker and colleagues reveals the choice of a particular convection-resolving model (CRM) has a much larger impact on the results than increasing resolution. It also suggests the behaviour of CRMs is tied to model internals instead of the phenomena they are trying to reproduce.
The first comprehensive worldwide assessment of heatwaves down to regional levels has revealed that in nearly every part of the world heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and duration since the 1950’s. The research has also produced a new metric, cumulative heat, which reveals exactly how much heat is packed into individual heatwaves and heatwave seasons.
CLEX researchers found the influence of climate change and the depletion in stratospheric ozone are the major drivers over the Atlantic Oceans that shift westerly winds further south. However, over the Pacific and Indian oceans natural variations induced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific also play an important role.
This study investigates the influence of cold pools, which are evaporatively cooled regions of air near the surface, below thunderstorms, on the orientation of line‐organized thunderstorm clusters using computer model simulations.