This study illustrates how future uncertainty of climate models in predicting hot extremes is controlled by two factors, both related to amplification of hot extremes through land-atmosphere interactions
The scientific community is moving away from “beauty contest” thinking where models are accepted or rejected on the basis of how well they simulate particular aspects of the present or past, toward a smarter approach that seeks to understand and exploit how present and future predictions are related as well as how different models are related.
Extreme daily accumulated rainfall is greater when convection is organised, because convection is localised in relatively fixed locations once it’s organised, which increases the accumulated extreme rain over long timescales.
Overall, the inaugural Australian Countdown finds that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and a slow transition to renewables and low-carbon electricity generation.
We can expect more occurrences of extreme weather associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events (the strongest and most destructive of the two types of El Niño events), which will have pronounced implications for the twenty-first century climate, extreme weather and ecosystems.
CLEX researchers propose that 21% of the heat carried across the Subantarctic Front south of Tasmania is achieved by long-lived, cold-core eddies entering the Subantarctic Zone.
Together with a recent paper estimating evaporation and transpiration from the land surface, this paper brings the community a step closer to observationally constrained estimates of the historical land surface energy and water budgets
In this review paper, researchers contextualise the broad and seemingly disparate range of attempts to define and address model dependence within climate model ensembles, and offer concrete advice on how best to avoid overconfidence.
In this study a very high-resolution simulation of a Hector thunderstorm – a large regularly occurring storm near Darwin – is analysed and the hydrating properties of the overshoots are examined.
The ocean plays a critical role in the climate system by transferring heat from the tropics toward the poles, helping to regulate regional climates. How this heat transport may change in the future remains a first order question in climate science.