An improved Tropical Pacific Observing System that is responsive to user needs will provide for better understanding and prediction of the climate system, which will reduce climate uncertainty for society.
Weather time scales will be needed for models to accurately simulate the dynamic contribution to future precipitation changes with global warming. This will better reproduce spatial patterns and reduce regional uncertainties, especially in the tropics.
Weather and climate extremes occur on a wide range of time and space scales. Weather extremes occur on shorter timescales and are regionally or locally specific while climate extremes tend to be on longer timescales and can impact a region through to the whole globe. This note provides a statement on what we know about how weather and climate extremes might change in the future.
This research shows how to optimise the observational uncertainty description for data assimilation schemes in the special case of state dependent observational uncertainty.
New data assimilation method leads to large improvements in forecast accuracy when satellite observations of electromagnetic radiation emanating from the Earth were used to inform the data assimilation scheme.
Two papers by Centre of Excellence researchers are the first to systematically investigate and document hybrid cyclones in the Australian region.
Calibration errors in the widely used Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System Version 3 NDVI (GIMMSv3.0g) dataset caused significant errors in the trends over some of Australia’s dryland regions. Though identified over Australia, the problematic calibration in the GIMMSv3.0g dataset may have effected dryland NDVI values globally. These errors have been addressed in the updated GIMMSv3.1g which is strongly recommended for use in future studies.
Computer models used to simulate global climate agree the climate will warm in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, a recent paper by Bador et al. (2018)1 includes results that highlight our uncertainty about exactly how extremely wet conditions will change in Australia. Further development of Australia’s national climate model, ACCESS, may help reduce this uncertainty.
This study illustrates how future uncertainty of climate models in predicting hot extremes is controlled by two factors, both related to amplification of hot extremes through land-atmosphere interactions
The scientific community is moving away from “beauty contest” thinking where models are accepted or rejected on the basis of how well they simulate particular aspects of the present or past, toward a smarter approach that seeks to understand and exploit how present and future predictions are related as well as how different models are related.